NFL vs. Madden Sims? | A closer look at bets with Sports Sims!

Written by - Thursday, 15 October 2020 10:27
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Let us start with the all-time American favorite sports NFL football, love or hate it, we can’t deny its popularity, but if you feel like the real thing is too sparse for you, just a Monday Night Football game, Thursday Night Football game, and a dozen or so games on Sunday is not enough or just you want more NFL on the field? then you then a simulation game can cover your Football needs, for this comparison, it’s also good to mention that we’ll be taking lines from betting the Madden Sims at Bookmaker which is a good starting point for any interested in the sports sims and the betting world not to mention Bookmaker being one of the oldest Bookies around.

Let’s compare OCT 13th Madden simulation betting lines for the Browns and Steelers with Week 6 matchups.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | Tuesday Madden Sim

Bookmaker has the virtual Steelers as 3.5-point favorites over the ones-and-zeros Browns on Tuesday. If we check the updated ESPN FPI, the Steelers are 11th on the power-rating list and a good for a two-point victory on a neutral field over an average team. But what is an average team? Well, right now, on the same index, the Arizona Cardinals are the epitome of average as they are projected to lose against an average team by just a tenth of a point. The Colts and the Browns are just above average at 0.66 and 0.7 FPI, respectively. This indicates that the Colts should beat the Cardinals by 0.7 points, and the Browns should beat the Cardinals by 0.8 points. This is on a neutral field, mind you.

So, in the real world, the Steelers would also get roughly a field goal in our handicapping process for being the home team. The sum makes their total home FPI 5.0 against the Browns 0.7. This means that Pittsburgh is 4.3 points better and, thus, should be listed as a 4-point favorite.

It just so happens that the Steelers are playing the Browns this weekend, and the actual betting line is 3.5 points.

The Break Down

Big Ben and the Steelers are pissed right now. The debacle with the Tennessee Titans pushed their bye forward and pretty much screwed them. I wouldn’t be surprised if they take it out on their AFC North rivals, the Cleveland Browns.

The Cleveland Browns average 27.5 points of offensive production while out on the road in 2020. This goes against the Pittsburgh Steelers 27 points per game at home and 26.7 points overall. The biggest difference between the two offenses is where the yardage comes from. For the Steelers, it’s Big Ben slinging the ball. The Steelers put up 242.33 yards per game through the air, and 139.67 YPG on the ground. The diametrically opposite, the Cleveland Browns pound the ball on the ground for 222.5 yards per game and only toss the skin for 184.5 yards on average. Currently, the Browns are the best rushing team in the league.

Another important thing to note is in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have won each affair. On top of that, the Steelers are 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings. Perhaps more importantly, the Steelers covered the spread 4 times and pushed once in those five home games.

Defense Is the Difference Maker

Here’s why you should take the steelers to cover the point spread. The Steelers defense allows just 21 points per game at home. Meanwhile, the Browns have leaked points like a sieve while out on the road. They average 38 allowed with 375.5 passing yards racked up against them. That’s No. 31 in the league. This defensive flaw falls right into the Steelers’ offensive strength. On the flip side of that, the Steelers defense is the third-best in the NFL in stopping the run at home. They are an iron curtain, allowing just 66 yards per game! When you factor this in with stats like total yards per play allowed (Pittsburgh No. 4 vs. Cleveland No. 29), you see that the Steelers have a fantastic home defense that ranks in the top 10 in total score, going against a Browns D that only excels at stopping the run and ranks dead last in the total score.

I like Pittsburgh to cover in real life and the SIM on Tuesday. But I am going to check the simulated outcome and stats from Bookmaker just to be sure.

Published in Gambling

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